Covington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

390
FXUS61 KILN 260048
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
848 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary laying out over the region will act as a focus
for storms this weekend. These high temperature values are expected
to continue through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Evening update...
Much of the rain and thunderstorm activity has ended across the area
with only isolated activity remaining. An outflow boundary is moving
southward through southeast Indiana and southern Ohio, and this may
spark an occasional downpour or thunderstorm. Otherwise,
expectations are the overnight period will be quiet, partly due to
the large cold-pool over the local area. The heat advisory has been
expired this evening, but one remains possible tomorrow if confidence
increases.


Previous discussion...(215PM)
Thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease significantly this
evening, but then see an uptick overnight in west central Ohio.
Threats from tonight`s storms will be the continued potential for
torrential rains and isolated flooding where they hit poorly drained
areas or maintain themselves over an area for any length of time.

Lows from 70-75 will continue to add/accumulate stress on
individuals who may suffer disproportionately from high heat index
values, including but not limited to the elderly, poor, or those with
serious medical conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thunderstorm activity that should be isolated in the northwest during
the early morning will see an uptick by late morning. This activity
will become more scattered in nature and then become likely in the
latter part of the day. This will be most noted north of the Ohio
river where storms will occur at one point in time or another during
the day.

Once again, the primary threat with these storms lies in the
potential for torrential downpours that have a high chance of
creating localized flooding issues. The more persistent activity in
the north where CAPEs >2000 J/kg stands a chance to combine with a
favorable shear profile to produce potentially damaging winds in the
afternoon.

High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s/low 90s. Combined
with a higher moisture environment, heat indicies will reach the
upper 90s to near 100. A few points could top 100 but these will be
the outliers.

Overnight potential for thunderstorms will be focused more to the
north along the I-70 corridor and then shift eastward to central
Ohio. Another uncomfortable night with lows generally 73-75 are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expansive mid level ridge centered over the southeastern US will
retrograde into the central part of the country during the early part
of the week. Peak height anomalies over the forecast area are still
around 2 standard deviations on Monday. At the surface, a weak east-
west oriented boundary is forecast to sag south out of the lower
Great Lakes on Sunday. With plenty of moisture and instability in
place, this will serve to enhance convective coverage. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the primary concern, although a few
stronger downdrafts will also be possible. That boundary will likely
dissipate by Monday leaving a more weakly forced environment for
diurnal convection with a similar scenario for Tuesday.

A pattern shift will take place later in the week. This starts on
Wednesday when a lead short wave rounding the base of developing
long wave trough tracks across the Great Lakes. This will drive a
cold front across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. NBM
PoPs remain modest at this juncture which could be related to how
low level forcing and mid level support align. Regardless, CSU MLP
and CIPS analogs do highlight that day for some potential of severe
weather.

There is some uncertainty on Thursday whether the airmass will
completely dry out or whether some showers will be possible as
cooler air aloft spreads in. But there is a higher likelihood of
drier conditions by Friday.

Hot and humid conditions will persist for the first half of the
week. Believe that NBM temperatures and dew points still have their
slightly high bias, synergistically resulting in pretty high
deterministic apparent temperatures. Probabilities of reaching heat
advisory criteria of 100 are generally less than 30 percent area
wide on Sunday. Probabilities increase across southern counties, 40
to 60 percent on Monday and 50 to 70 percent on Tuesday. Higher
probabilities start to get shunted southwards on Wednesday, although
still around 40 percent across northern Kentucky. Air temperatures
will then fall below normal for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Due to the impacts from thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening, winds may be a bit variable before turning back to southerly
or becoming calm. No additional thunderstorms are forecast for area.
The only non prevailing VFR is LUK with some fog before daybreak.

Scattered storms are expected to affect the region again on
Saturday. Due to a lack of confidence in any particular timing,
PROB30s currently outline the general threat from 16Z-23Z.

With the front lifting north again tonight, winds will be southerly
to southwesterly tomorrow afternoon around 8-10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Monday,
peaking in activity during the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis